Seneca, one of the bien pensant opinion leaders of ancient Rome excoriated Shabbat as a wicked waste of time. If you make a sale, moreover, to your friend or buy from your friends hand, you shall not wrong one another. OK, we get poorer, but we dont really notice. ET. Fine grows lettuce and kale using hydroponics on raised platforms to fulfill the biblical commandment to let his farmlands rest every seventh year. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the Lords remission has been proclaimed.. If Israel followed God in these things, then the Shemitah would bring a great benefit and blessing; essentially providing for each farming family a full year off every seven years from cultivating, planting, and harvesting. I DO NOT GUARANTEE A PARTICULAR OUTCOME I HAVE NO INSIDE KNOWLEDGE! Filed Under: Extra, time-cycles Tagged With: 7 year cycle, collapse, crash, recession, shemitah, shmitah, stock market, time cycle, w d gann, VERY INTERESTING HAVE YOU DONE AN ANALYSIS HOW BITCOIN REACTED AT THESE TIMES Bro as btc looks like it has turned the corner now moving from BULL TO BEAR which would increase the stocks just in time for THE SHEMITAH Blessings Mike. When ancient Israel uttered these prideful words God brought judgment upon the But what does this have. You may wonder how Israel could ever eliminate a year of planting and not run out of food, because the effect of the Shemitah would actually result in at least a 1.5-year interim between harvests. There is always some rational, well-grounded economic reason why the current boom whether in South Sea stocks, internet companies or residential real estate will go on for ever and ever. warning from God to come back to Him but the leaders of America quoted Isaiah 9:10 in defiance. This 1.5-year delay occurs, because crops require the wet winter months in Israel to grow and are generally harvested in the springtime or early summer. The length of these cycles is reliably between six and nine years. When you approach the end, you will see how things correspond to the world today. Markets therefore adjust swiftly and efficiently when assets are mis-priced and so it is impossible, for mismatches between prices and real values to persist. In addition, if the poor sold their property because they needed the money, their family would eventually be assured of gaining it back at the Jubilee. Since God is the true source of all that we havefood, material goods, property, money, and everything elsea cessation of work forced the people into a time of complete faith and dependence on Him. For instance, someone who publishes a new insight related to the Bible or a new way of interpreting prophecy related to the End Times often generates a lot of excitement and attention, and they may even sell millions of books; however, attention and book sales dont necessarily mean that the conclusions are accurate. However, none of what grew during the Shemitah year could be harvested and sold as it was during the other 6 years of a cycle. Whether you believe that the war is the source of all current problems or not, have a look at the table below. 1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history. The previous salary increase was higher than the last one, so were kind of happy. The complete set of laws Moses wrote down were quite extensive and extended far beyond the Ten Commandments, which immediately comes to mind when we consider the Old Testament laws. Ive created an indicator that can help traders and investors analyze the Shemitah year on various charts in Trading View. Why stocks. The fears are paper tigers. Feb. 28, 2023 at 3:56 a.m. Incorrect password. Yet the charts suggest that, although we are desperate to deny it, such a rhythm is obstinately embedded in human economic life. 1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. If we continue the upwards trend entering 2021, approaching September we should pay attention. Many other laws also have a universal connotation. Two-thousand years later, the idea that people need a weekly rhythm of work and rest, has been embraced by most people on the planet. They all last for 30 minutes, which today is considered quite long, but give it a go and watch the first episode. You shall have the fiftieth year as a jubilee; you shall not sow, nor reap its aftergrowth, nor gather in from its untrimmed vines. There are many sources of economic data that can be found to map out the recessions or depressions in the worlds economy, including information related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as the booms and busts in the stock markets or bond markets, the increases and decreases in currency values, or the rise and fall of unemployment. The 1994 bond market massacre is remembered with horror by those who lived through it. Think about this. Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! Note: All returns assume a change in price and include dividend payouts (not reinvested). Could we use policy instruments, such as a gradual tightening of monetary policy starting in the sixth year after the previous slump to prevent the next collapse being as devastating (or even more so) than the last one? Our Major Trend Index has four factor categories, and three of them (Valuation, Cyclical, Technical) remain negative. A more in depth analysis would conclude that breathing has nothing to do with eventual death, even if everyone who breaths does eventually die. The Lord prevents such precise predictions (and guaranteed monetary gains) by making the Shemitah Effect more of a probability and less of a certainty. This type of downward pressure on the global financial system may also cause the rise and fall of empires and countries, as economic upheavals often cause major political power shifts. and yearsthe cycle of seven weeks (7x7) points to the 50th day - Pentecost. then I will so order My blessing for you in the sixth year that it will bring forth the crop for three years. To the nation that upholds the ways of God it comes as a blessing. The data therefore indicates that throughout this period of over a century in length, 11 Shemitahs out of 17 show a definite Shemitah Effect relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. America as the world's super power. There's been a major financial disruption in seven of the eight Shmita years dating back to 1966: Read more If Israel followed God, this two-year super-Shemitah would pose no problems for their food supply or for their economy. We are asking for your ideas too. In the year 2014-2015 the stock market is moving sideways and slows down within the established uptrend. So I was surprised to see, sitting right there on the Hudson best-seller shelves, a volume with the word Shmita screaming off the cover in raised gold letters. Thus, there appears to be a Shemitah Effect that manifests itself as negative economic pressure upon the economy of the United States, and since the U.S. economy typically reflects what is happening in the world, this effect likely occurs worldwide as well. However, the complete statistical analysis indicates that the correlation is poor at best. The special Sabbath that occurs once every seven years became known as the Shemitah. For instance, the Ten Commandments clearly have important application to all people throughout all time, not just to the Jews and the nation of Israel. So even though a Shemitah year would end in the fall on Elul 29, the next harvest would not occur until at least 7-8 months later. From Shuls to JCCs, Federations to urban farms, I met a wide range of knowledge levels and often had to begin by explaining the abc of shmita, the biblical seven-year agriculture cycle. During prosperous times economies grow rapidly and easily get out of balance until something breaks, causing a domino effect throughout the economy, and leading to a recession or a depression. Thus, the agricultural effect occurs during the entire year and immediately thereafter, whereas the effect from the debt release occurs only at the end of the year and its wake. In this article I want to have a look at the Shemitah Cycle also known as the 7-year cycle. Time Cycles Say Therell Be Better Times Than 2022, A Religious Calendar Calls For A 2022 (Market) Sabbatical, Soft Landing Or Recession? This widespread effect resulted in downturns or recessions built into Israels economy at regular intervals, which obviously had other consequences beyond just affecting farming families. he does point out one remarkable fact: the final day of both of the last two shmita years saw two of the three largest falls in history (measured in points not in per cent) of the US stock market. The lack of an absolute correlation to stock market crashes shouldnt come as a surprise, however. The bond market bubble has popped, and forward-looking Treasury returns are no longer a disaster. 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. name for ourselves", "Who say in pride and arrogance of heart: The bricks have fallen down, but we will rebuild with Therefore, Moses told the nation of Israel that six days out of every week they should labor and work, but on the seventh day they should rest from all their labors and do no work: For six days work may be done, but on the seventh day there is a sabbath of complete rest, a holy convocation. Theres been a major financial disruption in seven of the eight Shmita years dating back to 1966: Our institutional research publication Perception for the Professional is sought after by the top institutional managers in the industry. Six years you shall sow your field, and six years you shall prune your vineyard and gather in its crop. For proof of this fact, Moses said that Israel would only have to remember the Exodus years in the wilderness of Sinai in which God miraculously supplied Manna to eat for 6 days out of every 7 for a total of 40 years. Moses also said in Exodus and Leviticus that crops should be planted and harvested for six years, but in the seventh year the land should rest and enjoy a Sabbath in which no crops would be planted. Many societies throughout history have used crop rotation to overcome this effect, and even today it is a recognized and important aspect of farming in order to maintain optimal soil composition. It shall be a jubilee for you, and each of you shall return to his own property, and each of you shall return to his family. 1916-1917 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops 40%. For instance, in the following figure, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stretching from the year 1900 to the autumn of 2015 is mapped with the Shemitah years highlighted as transparent yellow bars on top of the curve. Selectively cherry-picking from data sets can result in seeing an effect that is not really there. Its boring and time consuming, but the very episodes mentioned above may make it less boring. As can be seen, there are some Shemitah years that actually do correlate well to downturns in the stock market; particularly, these are represented by the years 1902-1903, 1909-1910, 1916-1917, 1930-1931, 1937-1938 (at its start), 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015. If that was the case, the servant would be released from his service at the end of the Shemitah year, thus providing a way to free such slaves every seven years. The stock market follows and amplifies the cycle. The fact that the world is in a turmoil at the moment isnt exactly breaking news. I was on a tour of Jewish America to promote a just-published book on shmita. An investor should not assume that any strategy used by Reppond Investments, Inc. will directly correspond to any such comparative index.Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk. In the wake of the last crash, leading economists such as Nobel Prize winners George Akerlof and Robert Shiller have picked up on Keynes long-neglected insights and developed the field of Behavioral Economics, explaining how quirks of human psychology can help explain the persistence of economic cycles, and much else. Personal debts are forgiven, and commitments to faith are renewed. For the non-Shmita years, the average return is 9.0% (16.5%), but for the Shmita years, it is an average loss of -2.4% (22.7). As you might expect, the occurrence of a super-Shemitah produced significant effects on the economy and on every Jewish citizen of Israel. The World Trade Centre was conceived in the Shmita of 1945, begun in the Shmita of The comparison of the volatility of Reppond Investments, Inc.s strategies to the volatility of any stock market index is for illustrative purposes only. Israel has two calendars; religious and civil. We thought the MTIwith over 125 inputswas pretty exhaustive. Lets see. On 29th Ellul, 5768, 29th September 2008, the Dow Jones Index fell 777.68 points, a little under 7%, the largest daily points drop ever, and on 29th Ellul 5761, 17th September 2001, the index plummeted 685 points the third largest one-day fall in history, a little over 7%. The S\u0026P 500 is a trademarked term of the McGraw Hill Company, and index data was compiled from sources we believe to be reliable. But in practice, most of us, including eminent economists, forget. America is the most powerful nation in the history of the world. Table 2. The Significant of the Shemitah Cycle In his book, Rabbi Jonathan writes all peoples and nations should follow this cycle as those who do not, will face God's judgment. Therefore, the principle of the Shemitah remained in effect even if Israel tried to eliminate it from their lives and culture. There are other cycles as well, like the moon phases and sunspot cycles and bitcoin does seem to have a clear correlation in terms of price. Cahn has postulated that this principle is actually affecting the course of world events and especially the future of the United States and Israel as we move forward in the End Times. Nevertheless, the length of their captivity directly related to the time that the nation did not follow this law. THE STOCK MARKET WILL CRASH! Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in As business picks up, people invest, share prices rise, people get excited and invest more, still more investors pile into the market, as everyone seems to me making loads of money so effortlessly; theres exhuberance and euphoria until a few smart alicks figure that assets are inflated way beyond their real values; euphoria gives way to doubt to anxiety to full blown panic; people runs for the hills, the cycle screeches into reverse, fortunes are lost and the whole thing starts all over again. On August 29, 1966, the S&P 500 dropped to 74.53, down -20.76% from its prior high 6 months previously on February 9, 1966. The next year of the Shemitah starts on September 7th, 2021, and ends on September 25, 2022. 1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. There is basically no systematic effect. According to the statutes of this law, the 50th year would include another year like the Shemitah year of not planting or harvesting of crops; therefore the seventh Shemitah year of rest for the land was followed by another Jubilee year of rest, making two consecutive years of no planting and no harvesting every 49 years. Shmita is the wiping away of that which has been built up. Feel free to contact me if you have questions or comments. Among the many cycles described in the Bible, we find the seven-year-cycle, ending with a sabbath year (shemita); simply put, a year where you let the land rest. What if we could engender the expectation that the seventh year will be a year of readjustment in national or global economics? 1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash. The differences between Reppond Investments Inc.s results and those of the indices may be different due to differences in diversification and by the properties of the actual securities held by Reppond Investments, Inc. Through these two characteristics, the Lord provided a life of rest and highly reduced stress, while encouraging his people to live without having the burden of debt hanging over their heads. And the Torahs idea of shmita can teach us plenty about financial bubbles and economic cycles, whatever you think of Cahans take on the freaky coincidences. One method of looking at a potential Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to attempt to correlate the major point drops or percent changes in the stock market to a Shemitah year or its wake. This happened to be a Shemitah year. As a student of the Bible and also as a scientist by training, I have to conclude that the statistical analysis of all the data indicates that the effect is not apparent. The cycles of the Shemitah and Jubilee releases would therefore continue to smooth out the ups and downs of the economy and reduce the extreme differences between the rich and poor. Also, on the seventh year, all debts were to be forgiven (Deuteronomy 15:1-11). To follow these laws, the people had to have a strong faith in God that He would get them through the years of no planting, no harvesting, and all this combined with the major economic releases of debt and property. The Sabbath year or Shemitah was not only to include a cessation of agricultural activity, but also an elimination of debt within the economy. Global recession.2021-2022 Shmita Year ??? We are in a high-inflationary environment and a dysfunctional legislative branch. STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE END OF 2022!? On January 6th, I published my Predictions for 2022, where I wrote about a financial crisis, much worse than the one in 2008. Not planting nor harvesting any crops so the soil can recover from 6 years of growing and harvesting. The prideful building of the Tower of Babel brought judgment. Therefore, working backward from the Shemitah of 2014-2015, the following years can be calculated to be Shemitahs simply subtracting 7 from each year. 2022 was a nasty year for the stock market, but a wonderful one for market numerologists. These differences are significant (p < 0.05). Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. 9/11 and Global recession. Stock market indices are unmanaged, broadly based indices, which differ in numerous respects from the specific portfolio composition. I never trade solely based on time cycles but time cycles can give a great advantage of being able to look at the macro-perspective. This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. He described within it, as part of a series of harbingers to judgment affecting the United States and the world, a concept related to an old Jewish law often called the Shemitah (The Harbinger, p. 153). If the reset is not expected, (and it usually isnt), experience shows that it comes upon us anyway, as a nasty surprise. The story behind the Shemitah is that the 7th year is the year of resting and releasing. The new tower raised up from Ground Zero has People simply cannot be wrong for long. In the year 2007-2008 we have seen the fall of the Lehman brothers which led to the housing market crash and recession. The Shmita year starts every 7th year on Elul 29 on the Biblical Calendar on the Feast of Trumpets. The Lord promised that he would bless Israel if they followed his ways, and the weekly Sabbath and the seventh-year Shemitah would pose no problems, but be a great blessing. Now lets have a look at the more recent stock market crashes we have seen. I higly recommend it and youll find links to all ten episodes below. It was 2015, and a church friend of mine was warning about the stock market crash that she was predicting. He holds semicha, degrees from Oxford and Harvard and lives in Jerusalem with his wife and five children. It is not surprising, therefore, that there are downturns in the market which occur outside of a Shemitah year. The last time we have seen a Shemitah year was in the year 2014-2015. I AM NOT AN EXPERT! Well, we dont really listen to them anymore not since the financial crisis but we still listen to the experts. The first thing to ask is, What is the Shemitah Effect? To answer that question we need to first understand the Old Testament laws that created and govern the Shemitah (often called Shmita by the Jews). They are intended to provide general comparative information to help an individual client or prospective client in deciding whether the performance of Reppond Investments, Inc.s strategies meet, or continue to meet, his/her investment objective(s). Here is the crazy thing, the actual returns are different for the Shmita years. However, there is also a second calendar year, the Jewish ecclesiastical calendar, which begins on the first day of Nisan (originally called Aviv), which occurs in the spring, and then ends on Adar 29. Even your cattle and the animals that are in your land shall have all its crops to eat.. This part of the Shemitah law related to loans made only by and between the people of Israel. Your email address will not be published. The charts can span most of the Twentieth Century and, as of this writing, up to October 2015 in this century. Depending on the trend in the stock market I do think this year could be a remarkable year in the history of our economy. Corresponding to the number of years after the jubilee, you shall buy from your friend; he is to sell to you according to the number of years of crops. The above methods of correlating the Shemitah years or their wake to an observed drop in an economic indicator do not represent the optimal way of showing that a Shemitah Effect is really occurring. Maybe remove the Ukrainian flag from the profile picture, as its been there for a while. It's a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: 1901-1902 - 46% of the US stock market value wiped out. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Everything regarding property ownership would be equalized again at the Year of Jubilee. Of course the stock exchanges are experiencing problems, but most of the newly printed money end up in the exchanges, thus preventing the logical drop. God often operates within the realm of probabilities in such a way that He makes it difficult or impossible for us to absolutely predict the future. Through these two effects, Israel would be distinct from the nations, and God would ensure that there would be no poor and no person would forever remain downtrodden. (Id much rather a divinity who manifests through, for example, a sunset, the theory of relativity or a childs smile.) 1916-1917 - 40% of the US stock market value wiped out. Fruit that grew on trees could be picked by anyone and eaten. Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. These graphs can easily be superimposed with the Shemitah years to see if there are any major correlating effects relative to the U.S. economy (the U.S. economy being the largest single financial entity in the world and a good indicator of global economic trends). Reppond Investments, Inc. reserves the right to trade different ETFs or mutual funds within a strategy than those reflected in the graphic shown. ", "Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower whose top is in the heavens; let us make a JUST OPINION! Germany, Russia, Austria, Turkey and Great Britain suffer . This result is close to a 65% correlation of stock market downturns to the Shemitah year or its wake. A mini-recession built into their economic system every seven years which assured that there would be no financial bubbles or the subsequent severe crashes, which often resulted from them. Sukkot, Shmita and a stock market crash? The Shmita And more than that, did the Lord actually build a fundamental property into the functioning of nations and societies that produces a type of Shemitah Effect even if the nations dont follow or even know about the Shemitah or the Law of Moses? The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. Required fields are marked *. What if this expectation could allow decision makers to gently let the air out of the bubble before it pops? All during this one Shmita year. Zenzs method of analyzing the full data set thus differed from Cahns method of only looking at whether an economic downturn occurred during a Shemitah year. This happened to be as well a Shemitah year. Bayer AG shares fell on Tuesday after the company said fourth-quarter net profit fell, noting that it had a higher number of lawsuits related to . Since the majority of Shemitahs end up occurring during an economic downturn, it is easy to get the impression that the Shemitah Effect is the cause. The shmita year, which we have just begun has called forth a remarkable renaissance of thinking and doing that aims to recover the values of the shmita and implement them in relevant and creative ways. Speak to the sons of Israel and say to them, When you come into the land which I shall give you, then the land shall have a sabbath to the Lord. 3 The historical performance results for indices and index funds, used as proxies for indices, are provided exclusively for comparison purposes. 1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out. Remember, each Shemitah year begins and ends in the fall, so it typically overlaps a little more than 3 months in one year of our calendar and a little less than 9 months in the following year. The Shemitah years of 1972-1973, 1979-1980, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, and 2007-2008 all correspond to concurrent or subsequent increases in the unemployment rate. In addition, if there happens to occur a super-Shemitah with a Jubilee year following the Shemitah year, then the economic effects would continue for at least 2 years with again some effects lingering afterward. Please contact us in case of abuse. Once the Jews were in their land, the Lord would similarly provide an increase in their crops to get them through the Shemitah year with no difficulty. Through history, there has been a lot of economic action linked to these events. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. hearts with the times and feast dates that have been set down by God. Market indices are unmanaged, broadly based indices, which today is considered quite long, but it... But in practice, most of the Shemitah year or its wake eminent! Wonderful one for market numerologists INSIDE KNOWLEDGE of all current problems or not, have a look the! 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