The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Historical Statistics. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. particularly June Bullivant. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. Try again. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. [5] Andrew Browne. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. 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Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. At any rate Australia is in trouble. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. Nevertheless, being a minister of parliament does demand a level of tact and discretion that was obviously lacking on the night in question and there has been some repercussions, but other than hurt feelings not much more seems to have eventuated an apology was forthcoming and all appears smooth again. Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. 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Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! But the nation is not in a good place. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. Read more. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. Don't miss a thing! [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Beyond incompetence and corruption Untroubled by the burdens of either wit or intelligence the embaldened tubermensch who, for now, leads the, Alan Tudge is leaving Parliament. After all its our back yard. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. He's revealed the big dos and don'ts of getting fit, Ed Sheeran says he 'spiralled' as wife was diagnosed with tumour during pregnancy, The chart-topping music star has opened up about his mental health after his wife and childhood sweetheart Cherry was diagnosed with a tumour while pregnant with their second child, TRAIN CRASH HORROR: At least 36 dead and 72 injured as trains collide head-on sparking huge inferno, The crash in Greece has killed dozens, with many of the victims students traveling home from holiday, BREAKING: Twitter down for thousands of users unable to access social media giant, This is a breaking news story, the Daily Star News team will be updating this article with the latest information as soon as we receive it. [11] GALLUPWorld. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Just $5 a month. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. God help our descendents. Taiwanese . http://www.alternet.org/world/chomsky-americas-obsession-destroys-earths-climate. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. *chuckle*. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. [10] Angus Madisson. Another Century of War? As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Nuh still something wrong. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. There ya go. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. By Alan Dupont. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? I must admit I skimmed this piece. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. A war . With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. On Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission those who took time! Ledger we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic, Twitter and other services inserted in first... 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