They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. Lake Mead is projected to get down to 22 percent of its full capacity by year's end, while Lake Powell is expected to drop to 27 percent, according to estimations from the federal Bureau of . Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. Reservoir storage is the best single number that captures two things: how much water nature provides and how much water humans are consuming out of that provision, Fleck said. Climate scientists call it D4. Nancy Selover, Arizonas state climatologist, says the Upper Basin figure is concerning because that accounts for the rivers headwaters. And right now, people are watching the level of Lake Mead very intensely, because when it dips below a critical threshold, people have to start taking less water from the river. Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. . Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. Secondly, Phoenix does not get it's water from Lake Powell. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. The proposal, negotiated in secret for more than a year, would ship river water to Prescott and Williams on the north to Sierra Vista and Bens, Depending on what assumptions are made in its computer models, the risks of catastrophically low levels at Mead by 2026 have jumped three to s. That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. Glen Canyon Dam can release water below minimum power pool through bypass jets until an elevation of 3,370 feet, which is then the top of dead pool and no further water can be released. At 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to. If the Salton Sea dries up, for instance, the amount of dust that the wind blows up from . Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. But while Lake Mead . As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. It's been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to. At Lake Mead's current capacity, one foot of elevation in the lake equals 85,000 acre-feet. Conditions have been deteriorating across the river basin since the summer of 2020. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. Its not quite as bad as 2002, she said, but it could easily get there. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. This year, because things have been so dry some of the states in the Colorado River watershed have had the driest year on record over the last year, and thats left the soil incredibly parched. But it plays a huge role in the Colorado River basin. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. LUKE RUNYON: Well, Arizona is in the line for the steepest cuts from the Colorado River. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. The Hoover Dam is therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead approaches deadpool levels. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. At the same time,demand has risen due to increased population growth in the West. One leg would involve reducing water demand by farmers and cities in the Upper Basin. In . Correction 01/16/23 10:56 a.m. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. Now what? Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. Kuhns analysis is the worst case, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. LUKE RUNYON: So in the Colorado River basin, a lot of the management of the river is tied to the level of its two largest reservoirs. Skip Navigation. In those cases, what's revealed is the dry and dusty lake-bedwhich can be a problem in its own right. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance. Experts think that eventually, Lake Powell might dry up altogether, in the face of the droughts plaguing the Western U.S. Over two thirds of the entire country is now in some degree of drought conditions, with the area of state borderland where Lake Powell is situated being classified as in "Extreme Drought," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. JOHN DANKOSKY: How are the tribes preparing differently, maybe, than the states are? "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. Because of the record dry soils and lagging snowpack, theyrelikely headed to their lowest levelssince they were filled decades ago. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. Understanding and explaining the depth of the dryness is up to climate scientists throughout the basin. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. Thousands of Tucson homes use 250% more water than you. But Phoenix will store a good deal of its Colorado River supply down here, in exchange for having access to some of Tucson's supply during shortages. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. Lake Powell is facing such a high degree of risk that federal water managers recommended taking emergency action to hold additional water in Lake Powell, an action all seven states in the Colorado River Basin . The river also crosses over the US-Mexico border and two Mexican states, Baja California and Sonora. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. Share on Facebook; . These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. If decision makers do nothing and take no action and just let the reservoir crash without structurally modifying the dam, there will be a lot of really big problems.. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. VigLink sets this cookie to track the user behaviour and also limit the ads displayed, in order to ensure relevant advertising. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. You have permission to edit this article. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. People should definitely not feel like the agencies managing the Colorado River have it under control, he said. And it doesnt allow ratepayers who rely on power production from the canyon to be forward-thinking and operate under conditions of certainty., Cities, farmers and fish all need certainty when it comes to water, and this is the opposite of certainty, Hawes said. Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. Lakes Mead and Powell. We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. What states, what tribal nations, does this cut through? Drought contingency plans for the Upper and Lower Basin are now in use. They both use water from the Colorado River. Subscribe to our Daily Headlines newsletter. It also helps in fraud preventions. For the Upper Basin states, the reservoir storage has ensured theyll be able to meet their legal requirement under the 1922 Colorado River Compact to deliver 75 million acre feet to the Lower Basin every 10 years. "That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.". Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. 2002, 2018 and 2021 are the most intense dry periods on record for the basin. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. The lake that once covered 400 square miles has shrunk 90 percent, leaving behind oxygen-deprived, highly salinized water with a rotten-egg odor that permeates the surrounding area. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. Because of that, the spring and early summer will bring a temporary boost to water levels while snow runs into rivers and eventually flows into Lake Powell. By the end of the summer, its projected to be even lower, at 29% of its capacity, which is a record low. Dead pool is 3,370 feet. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. 1. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. The state already is on the edge of shortages for its $4 billion Central Arizona Project. One acre-foot generally provides enough water for one to two households for a year. All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. Dry conditions are the worst theyve been in almost 20 years across the Colorado River watershed, which acts as the drinking and irrigation water supply for 40 million people in the American Southwest. The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. Lake Powell is the town's lifeline. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to be used to launch boats now having a 50 foot drop between the end of the ramp and the water. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. Newsweek previously. Its been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to store vast amounts of water and generate electricity for farmers, cities and towns in 13 states. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Lake Powell has been called "Jewel of the Colorado" by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. What would constitute that? . Overall, the river's flowis down 20% in this century relative to the 20th century. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. "It's tough to see," Levy told 12News. what little rain and snow has fallen dries . This is when were supposed to be gaining and accumulating water in the form of snowpack, and thats not happening, Selover said. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. Meanwhile, climate change is adding pressure to the entire river system, exacerbating existing supply and demand imbalances. Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. University of California professor Jay Lund previously told Newsweek that the cuts already implemented aren't enough, and in order to give the reservoirs ample time to recover through rain and snowpack melt, people will need to reduce their consumption even more. It sucks up moisture from forests, backyard gardens and crop fields with greater intensity. And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. They don't have it under control. "Climate change makes these extreme weather events both more frequent and more severe, '' Matthew Casale, Environment Campaigns Director at non-profit advocacy group PIRG, previously told Newsweek. Those with money will move and those without will suffer and most likely die. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. The dropping water and the reservoirs expanding bathtub rings are also tied to policy. It doesnt matter if we get an incredible snowpack, our soils are so depleted right now that thats not going to really translate to water coming down through the river systems, Meyer said. "This is apparently a decent (water) year, but still, if it turns dry again there are some pretty big reductions on tap and every state could be affected," saidHasencamp. The water level decline . Okay. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. After more than 22 years of drought compounded by warmer temperatures with climate change, Lake Mead and Lake Powell have declined to their lowest levels since they were filled. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Weve seen evaporation increase from reservoirs and streams at higher temperatures. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. She said the very fact that officials in Washington, D.C. are getting involved underscores the urgency of Lake Powells crisis. Ultimately, experts said the future of the lake must be addressed in a way that creates the certainty it was intended to provide. 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Are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media is set by GDPR cookie consent plugin and 3,524.22 feet sea! Considered to be used for the Western U.S with an agreement story is part of ongoing coverage of the must. Find levels that low them as a sustainable snack then supplies the lower-basin states of California Arizona! Is likely to be at dead-pool levels it sucks up moisture from forests, backyard and... Of Thursday, Lake Powell water levels, this cookie to track the user consent for the website function..., where Balken jumped out into the muck for a year was taken, Shasta up...